• IMPORTANCE
    • In individuals without blockage of their bile ducts, levels of plasma bilirubin likely reflect levels of biliary bilirubin; higher biliary bilirubin levels may increase the risk of gallstone disease.
  • OBJECTIVE
    • To test the hypothesis that a lifelong increase in plasma bilirubin levels is a causal risk factor for symptomatic gallstone disease in the general population.
  • DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
    • In a prospective study of the Danish general population (N = 61,212), we first tested whether elevated levels of plasma bilirubin predicted greater risk of symptomatic gallstone disease. Second, taking advantage of mendelian randomization, we tested whether a genetic variant in the bilirubin glucoronidating enzyme UGT1A1 (rs6742078) was associated with increased plasma bilirubin levels and, in turn, with an increased risk of symptomatic gallstone disease.
  • MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
    • Plasma bilirubin level and symptomatic gallstone disease.
  • RESULTS
    • During 34 years of follow-up, 3374 individuals developed symptomatic gallstone disease. In adjusted analyses, persons with plasma bilirubin levels in the 10th decile had a greater risk of symptomatic gallstone disease compared with those with plasma bilirubin levels in deciles 1 through 9; the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) were 1.57 (1.26-1.96) overall, 1.36 (1.02-1.82) in women, and 2.00 (1.41-2.83) in men. UGT1A1 genotype explained 20% of the total variation in plasma bilirubin levels and was associated with increases in the mean plasma bilirubin level overall of +16% (+0.09 mg/dL) in GT heterozygotes and +90% (+0.50 mg/dL) in TT homozygotes compared with GG homozygotes, with similar effects in women and men (P for trend <.001 for all). The corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for symptomatic gallstone disease were 1.09 (1.02-1.17) for GT heterozygotes and 1.22 (1.09-1.36) for TT homozygotes vs GG homozygotes and similar in women and men (P for trend = .04-<.001).
  • CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
    • These results are compatible with a causal association between extreme levels of plasma bilirubin and increased risk of symptomatic gallstone disease.